Thursday, February 15, 2018

Russia, Russia, Russia Is Just Nuthin', Nuthin', Nuthn'


Dilbert creator Scott Adams posted this on his Twitter page. He cites a study that concludes: "the best estimate of the effects of campaign contact and advertising on Americans’ candidates choices in general elections is zero."


The Minimal Persuasive Effects of Campaign Contact in General Elections: Evidence from 49 Field Experiments

Forthcoming, American Political Science Review
166 Pages Posted: 27 Sep 2017 Last revised: 19 Oct 2017

Joshua Kalla

University of California, Berkeley, Students

David E. Broockman

Stanford Graduate School of Business
Date Written: September 25, 2017

Abstract
Significant theories of democratic accountability hinge on how political campaigns affect Americans’ candidate choices. We argue that the best estimate of the effects of campaign contact and advertising on Americans’ candidates choices in general elections is zero. First, a systematic meta-analysis of 40 field experiments estimates an average effect of zero in general elections. Second, we present nine original field experiments that increase the statistical evidence in the literature about the persuasive effects of personal contact 10-fold. These experiments’ average effect is also zero. In both existing and our original experiments, persuasive effects only appear to emerge in two rare circumstances. First, when candidates take unusually unpopular positions and campaigns invest unusually heavily in identifying persuadable voters. Second, when campaigns contact voters long before election day and measure effects immediately — although this early persuasion decays. These findings contribute to ongoing debates about how political elites influence citizens’ judgments.

Once again the democrats and their faithful idiot servants, the media, journey into a land where form always triumphs over substance, where political suppositions ignore reality and fulsome exclamations replace honest debate.

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